Season Prospectus

(Pictures From olemisssports.com)

Football season is actually exciting again in Oxford for the first time since about '04. The Rebels actually have the chance to be interesting again thanks to a legitimate coach coming in and replacing the worst head coach in the SEC in at least 30 years. Ed Orgeron made Brad Scott want to dust off his resume.

OFFENSE

At quarterback the Rebels plan to start a highly rated transfer who played well as a freshman at a large public university that goes by "UT." If this sounds familiar, its because it was tried in 2006 with Tennessee transfer Brent Schaeffer. With horrid results.

Enter Texas transfer Jevan Snead. Jevan is still a great mystery to me. I wasn't overly impressed at the spring game with a very bland offense and little blitzing he's timing seemed off with the wide receivers. He's still looked better than any quarterback the Rebels have started since Eli Manning. Snead's had a great fall camp according to the rave reviews of Houston Nutt and offensive coordinator Kent Austin. Thanks to Orgeron's inability to sign quarterbacks he's really all the Rebels have. If Snead gets hurt there's only Billy Tapp (not likely to ever take a meaningful snap) or true freshman Nathan Stanley who played last season at a Indian tribal school in Oklahoma going against pretty weak competition.

The Rebels do return numerous letterman at wide receiver. Shay Hodge is the best position receiver, Mike Wallace is the deep threat, and the diminutive Dexter McCluster is the elusive slot back that will play qb some in the "wild rebel formation." (Honestly, I hate that name.) Markeith Summers is expected to also get extended playing time. While the group is overall solid none of the receivers would be labeled as an elite receiver. Tightend is in a desperate shape as all the Rebels have is a converted offensive tackle and a juco transfer. Look for the juco, Gerald Harris to start by default.

Luckily David Cutcliffe left a few lineman behind for running game guru Mike Markusson. The starting Offensive line is pretty good. Left tackle is anchored by preseason All American Michael Oher. John Jerry moves from right guard to right tackle and looks to be a solid NFL prospect as well. Mo Miller and Reid Neely are returning starters in the guard slots. Center looks to be manned by junior Daverin Geralds and should be solid. Rishaw Johnson and sixth year senior Daryll Harris are solid guard backups. Other than that though its a huge drop off since the former coach who was better adapt to work on a shrimp boat couldn't recruit offensive lineman.

The running back position is one of the few with real depth.

Cordera Eason had a superb spring game and a solid fall camp and looks to be the starter this fall. However he has little game experience (9 carries) since Orgeron preferred to play BenJarvis Green Ellis despite the fact that the players routinely said Eason looked better in practice. Eason looked awesome in the spring game showing the ellusive speed Green-Ellis never could by breaking off a few long touchdown runs. Jason Cook is a solid multi year starter at fullback. Backups who have gotten good reviews in fall camp include Derrick Davis, Brandon Bolden, and last recruiting seasons top prize Enrique Davis.

Throw in Markuson's known ability for great running games, the starting o-line, Eason, biggest rated signee ever Enrique Davis and its hard to see the Rebels not having a solid running game. If Snead lives up the hype and the receivers play well the Rebels could have a surprisingly decent offense.

DEFENSE

The Rebel's will surprisingly have one of the best defensive lines in the country. About the only thing Orgeron could do was get defensive linemen on campus. The rest of his recruiting was largely on paper but here he did a great job and we actually have more quality depth than most teams in the country. The Rebels have taken a few shots at this depth during fall camp but luckily the bulk of the injuries have occurred here. Pre-Season all sec pick Greg Hardy went down with a stress fracture in his foot and will miss six to eight weeks. He'll be back just in time for the bulk of the SEC part of the schedule. Marcus Tillman can start at either defensive tackle, like hid did as a freshman, or defensive end, like he did as a sophomore and is a superb run stopper. Kentrell Lockett is better than most backups and will start while Hardy's out. Emmanuel Stephens, a pass rushing specialist, and Chris Bowers give further quality depth at end.
At tackle the Peria Jerry is also banged up some but looks to play. Ted Laurent was slated to start but hurt his knee. Luckily it occurred early and after a scope he looks like he'll play against Memphis after all. 57 year old true freshman Jerrell Powe was also cleared to play. We were good without Powe but mix him in and it can get dangerously good once he gets going. Lawon Scott provides further depth and Justin Sanders provides the cockfighting angle. True freshman Justin Smith and Gerald Rivers had great fall camps and may or may not get to see some action.

Unfortunately after the line it drops of a bit. The projected starters are Ashlee Palmer at weakside, Jonathan Cornell at middle, and Allen Walker at strongside. Cornell started the first two games last year before going down to injury against Missouri and receiving a medical redshirt. Walker was highly recruited but yet to reach his potential. Ashlee Palmer was a juco transfer last year who played well. Backing up Cornell is juco transfer Tony Fein, who finished the year last year as the starter and is a great run stopper but struggles against spread teams. Former Auburn player Patrick Trahan is backing up the other two positions and looks to get a lot of playing time.

Houston Nutt has listed the secondary as the weak point of the team and what needs the most improvement. Last season the Rebels were one of the worst teams in turnover margin and interceptions. To help he moved two offensive players, Marshay Green and Jeremy MacGee, to cornerback and both look to be the backups. Starters look to be Doustin Mouzon and Cassius Vaughn. Jamarca Sanford returns to start at strong safety for the fourth straight year. Either Kendrick Lewis or Johnny Brown will start at free safety. The Rebels have little depth beyond nickel back Terrell Jackson.

So I'd expect the Rebels to struggle on defense against the spread passing and other good passing teams but perfom better stopping the run. So its good Missouri goes off the schedule.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicking game will more than likely be horrid unless the freshman kickoff guy from North Carolina , Bryson Rose, shows up and finds a way to kick it beyond the thirty five yard line. Field position routinely killed the Rebels last year. Whichever of the three scholarship punters wins the job they don't look to improve much over last years last place in the league. Junior place kicker Joshua Shene suffered through a down year last season but it was subsequently reveled that he was kicking with a torn hamstring that Orgeron refused to let him rest during practice instead preferring for him to perform in drills with the position players. Hopefully he can rebound to freshman form where he was dead on from mid range inwards.

For a team with five kickers on scholarship they have little to show for it.

SCHEDULE

Its a huge swing year because it could vary greatly between best achievable results and worst achievable. For example last year I wrote that best we could hope for was 6-6 but that was unlikely and I actual prediction was 2-10. I wasn't far off. This year I think 8-4 best case and 4-8 worst case.

Biggest reason for that is they have no depth. The Rebels are one or two critical injuries away from the entire season falling apart. Nutt can't let one of the offensive tackles, linebackers, fullbacks, tightends or Snead get hurt. Subpart to the lack of depth is some teams will wear Ole Miss down just by greater numbers. Specifically Florida, Auburn, & LSU will present a great disadvantage to the Rebels and its hard to see them winning any of those games. Additionally the Rebels are cursed in Tuscaloosa so its hard to predict that as a win. Wake is the most obvious loss to me. They are too efficient and its the second game. If was later in the year I'd give Ole Miss a better chance.

So where does that lead the Rebels. Throw in that Nutt finds a way to win a big game every year that he has no business winning. So I think he could find a way to win one of the Auburn, LSU or Alabama games. I don't know which one. Auburn's at home, Ole Miss always shows up for LSU because they are the biggest rival and Nutt usually finds a way to give them a good game. Orgeron took Bama down the line the last three years so maybe the addition of Nutt could push them over the edge. I wouldn't count on one of those though.

I don't see Nutt who's never lost to Croom and only lost to Mississippi State once in ten years loosing the Egg Bowl at home. Plus I'd expect State to take a huge step back this year as they had one of the luckiest seasons imaginable. Plus their spring game had to go into over time so that they could have one side score a point to break a 0-0 tie. If Orgeron can go 3-0 against Memphis, a coaching staff comprised of the Braves Journal top ten posters could. Samford and La Monroe should be gimmies. Vandy is still Vandy and its at home. They may have more depth but not as much elite talent. South Carolina is the big flip game. They will be better and the Rebels need to win it at home. I don't think Nutt will let himself loose to Arkansas on the first return trip. He'll have too much inside info on the team and has plays drawn up that he knows will hurt their personnel. Plus you know he's got that one circled.

So I'll go 7-5 and return to Shreveport for the Independence Bowl if the key players stay healthy.